UK General Election: How many seats will the Conservative Party win?
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Plus
100
Ṁ28k
resolved Jul 5
100%84%
<125
14%
125-154
1.5%
155-184
0.9%
185+

The election has been announced for July 4th, and the Labour party is expected to take power from the Conservatives. How many seats will the Conservatives win?

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Kind of a close shave, lol.

<125

@ManifoldPolitics resolves to this option, 2 seats left to declare and the Conservatives currently hold 121 seats.

Looks like it'll be 123 seats or less

I dare not dream. There’s no way. Right?

@Noit seems pretty implausible to me. But I keep betting Labour down and Tories up and everybody else doing the opposite, and I have pretty much no justification except vibes. Starting to sweat here. 😅