Which party will win the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election (by subgroup)?
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76
Ṁ18k
Jan 1
99%
Men: GOP
97%
Non-college graduate: GOP
96%
Age 45-64: GOP
96%
White women: GOP
95%
Non-LGBT: GOP
91%
Age 65+: GOP
9%
Non-white men: GOP
5%
Age 30-44: GOP
1.7%
Age 18-29: GOP
1.6%
College graduate: GOP
1%
Women: GOP

Each option resolves Yes if the GOP-nominated-candidate wins a plurality (1st place, not necessarily 50%+) of votes in this age group, No if the Dem-nominated-candidate wins a plurality, and the entire market resolves N/A if any group has a non-GOP, non-Dem plurality winner.

Will be resolved based on exit polling: here's an example from CNN in 2020.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
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bought Ṁ50 Non-college graduate... YES

This can now resolve: https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls/national-results/general/president

@ManifoldPolitics

The example link is broken and is a 404, can you please give some more info about how this is going to be calculated ?

What if there’s a tie in the exit polls? Or they disagree with each other?

So it's not possible to N/A for a single option?

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