@ManifoldPolitics please resolve. Thanks!

@Joshua @ManifoldPolitics

we should n/a these now?

I believe all the ones besides Harris can resolve N/A, no?

Ugh, I keep making the annoying mistake of thinking that this is the conditional VP market.

This one? https://manifold.markets/PatrickLV/what-will-the-democratic-ticket-be-x5bz7fdzk?r=Q2VzYXJHYW1pbmdhbmRWbG9ncw

No, this one.

This is much more interesting: https://manifold.markets/PatrickLV/what-will-the-democratic-ticket-be-x5bz7fdzk?r=Q2VzYXJHYW1pbmdhbmRWbG9ncw

Can someone explain to me what the point of this market is? Why would anyone lock up mana on, say, Beshear, when it will without question resolve to N/A as there is no shot they'll be the nominee?

There's no point to trading this market for anyone other than Harris if it's just going to resolve to N/A

someone with more mana than me ought to arb this with https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the Electoral College, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the Twelfth Amendment. (May resolve provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes; if Manifold allows provisional resolutions.)

Joe Manchin would be interesting. Apparently he's considering it

Add Roy Cooper

@ManifoldPolitics

@ManifoldPolitics Can you add Michelle Obama to the list?

If say, Biden was the nominee but then died before the election, would Kamala's option still resolve N/A?

A switch out after the convention is very unlikely, so I think this market's accuracy would be best served by promising to return traders' conditional investments as soon as possible. So we'll resolve all non-nominees to N/A after the convention is over.

Other markets can be made about scenarios where the nominee changes after the convention for whatever unlikely reason.

Giving this market some love since since it was linked to by Nate Silver

@ManifoldPolitics does this resolve YES in addition to the option for that specific Democrat if (for example) Gretchen Whitmer wins? Or should this be read as "any other Democrat except those listed here"?

Correct, both options would resolve yes.

Can you add more options? Andy Beshear, JB Pritzker, etc. - and of course, Michelle Obama?

Check out:

arbitrage! yay!

@ManifoldPolitics The liquidity here is terrible, a measly 100$ bet on kamala moves it by 5%.

I believe pretty strongly that Biden will be the nominee (My biggest bet on this website so far...) But if you think this is a pertinent question maybe consider injecting some sweet sweet manna....

Hmmm will consider, but note we also have

I'm more fond of that one, as it resolves N/A faster and locks people's mana up for less time.