Will Bitboy remarry by 2025? | Manifold

Will Bitboy remarry by 2025?

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On October 24, Ben Armstrong (Bitboy) posted on X that his wife Bethany had served him divorce papers: https://twitter.com/BenArmstrongsX/status/1716835531265606069.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ben remarries by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be information from Ben Armstrong and his legal representatives. A consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Bitboy is 41. According to the Pew Research Center about 63% of people that age remarry, and according to Goldberg Jones this gap usually takes 3.3 years. Since 2025 is a little over a year away which is much lower than the usual time gap, I'll estimate (1.1 year)/(3.3 years) * 63% = 21% or so.

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