Which pollster will be the most accurate in predicting the 2024 election results (popular vote)?

Plus

Ṁ1980

Dec 1

ALL

64%Other

12%

AtlasIntel

InsiderAdvantage

1.5%

NYT/Siena

1.5%

Ipsos

1.5%

Economist/YouGov

1.5%

PBS/Marist

1.5%

Harris

1.5%

CNN/SSRS

1.5%

Morning Consult

1.5%

Quinnipiac

1.5%

RMG Research

1.5%

Cygnal

1.5%

Emerson

1.5%

ActiVote

1.5%

TIPP

Based on the popular vote margin reported by AP compared to the final national LV poll before the election, as reported on 538. Does not take state polls into account.

Pollsters can be added, but only polls that are either in 538’s database count, with exceptions for Trafalgar, Rasmussen, ActiVote, and InsiderAdvantage. Exit polls and AP Votecast do not count.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#️ Politics

#Trump

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Kamala Harris

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Why do I feel like it's going to be Emerson? They nailed the NH write in primary within 1%, and seem to have a presidential turnout model even in midterm years, which hurt them a lot in 2022.

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