Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight in/by January 2025?

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Jan 22

83%

chance

ALL

Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/ is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2025 than the end of January 2024.

Will the doomsday clock advance towards midnight?

Criteria clarification:
-If the clock is at the exact same time as 2024 (90 seconds) this resolves NO.
-If the bulletin doesn't release a statement on the clock's new time by the end of February (PST) then this market will resolve to 50%.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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why "If thebulletin doesn't release a statement on the clock's new time by the end of February (PST) then this market will resolve to 50%."?

@MartinRandall we seek answers :)

@3d seems unlikely to occur but I wanted to resolve halfway in that case.

@MartinRandall so this clock can either change (resolved as yes) and don't change. is it necessary to add this 3rd scenario, where it does not change, and it is resolved at 50% ? whats the point in offering a yes/no question, when there are three possible outcomes?

@3d yes/no markets are simpler. You're welcome to create another market that better captures what you care about.

bought Ṁ7 NO

I agree, that scenario just seems like a "NO"

Arb

It would be 80 seconds to midnight by 2025

@NickAllenc961 Wanna bet?

@Shump yep

@NickAllenc961 There you go

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