Stagflation is an economic cycle characterized by slow growth, high unemployment, and rising prices. It’s a challenging situation for policymakers because addressing one factor can exacerbate another. Historically, stagflation was considered impossible, but it has occurred repeatedly in developed countries since the 1970s.
The question will resolve if there's evidence before the end of 2024 that the US economy has inflation above the fed target (2-3 pct) and total unemployment rate greater than 8 pct.
Evidence will be obtained from BLS, see example links below:
https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-by-category-line-chart.htm
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
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1.00The Conference Board forecasts that US economic growth will slow down to 0.8% in 2024, with a very short and shallow recession(ConferenceBoard). Inflation is expected to remain elevated, with the median prediction for 2024 inflation at 2.5% (CPI) and 2.4% (PCE). The labor market is expected to hold up relatively well due to persistent shortages in some industries and labor hoarding in others(Forbes). There is no consensus among economists about the causes of stagflation. Some argue that it can result from a supply shock, such as a sudden increase in the cost of oil, which reduces an economy's productive capacity and leads to higher prices and slower growth. Others suggest that stagflation can be caused by inappropriate monetary and/or fiscal policy, such as excessive government spending or too-low interest rates(UCLA). But, the recent Israel Hamas conflict and dependency of oil export on islamic states, Iran coming into picture and probably Russia taking advantage of the scenario may result in the worsening outcome.