How will I do in the 2024-5 USACO season?
How will I do in the 2024-5 USACO season?
Mini
37
Ṁ3272Jun 29
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2%
No Camp Invitation
26%
Camp Invitation (Guernsey)
66%
Camp Invitation (Holstein); no IOI
5%
IOI
0.2%
Class of '26; currently in Platinum (promoted on 2024 Open). Decentish amount of competition math experience; have been grinding USACO relatively intensely lately.
Holsteins are the IOI selection group; Guernseys are everyone else.
In my opinion, 1 and 2 are decently likely, 3 is pretty unlikely, and 4 is impossible. [Ignore the "Other" option.]
Scores:
December (certified) - 429
January (uncertified) - 729 (LB)
February (certified) - 333
Open (certified) - 667 (LB)
EDIT:
To clarify, if I'm initially invited as a Guernsey but end up being a Holstein, then this resolves as Holstein.
I might make a separate IOI market if I go to camp as a Holstein.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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