This market is to see if people think ASML will be targeted in any way over the next 5 years.
"As of 2022 ASML is the largest supplier for the semiconductor industry and the sole supplier in the world of extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) photolithography machines used to manufacture the most advanced chips."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
If you think chip demand will continue to increase (especially as AI gets better) you would assume that ASML's revenue will also increase year over year as it has in the past:
However, if a person or a group of people thinks AGI is getting too dangerous over the next 5 years they might disrupt ASMLs production in any way which will likely put a hamper on growth.
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1.00@Micrified I think the idea is that if ASML lithography tech slows down the amount of available FLOPS will also slow down as Nvidia and everyone else is reliant on ASML output/improvements. Also it's one of the main bottlenecks in the raw materials -> FLOPS global supply chain. Although that's just what I gathered from what I've casually read, I don't have particularly strong views. Do you think there is a better bottleneck that would be easier/better for people to 'target' that wanted to slow down available FLOPS?
@MattBrooks Smaller process nodes will evidently have a point of diminishing returns eventually. The question is why AI regulation in particular would hamper it. You singled this out in the OP as a reason for the market - not whether at some point lithography would run into fundamental limits.
@Micrified Sorry, I don't quite understand your question/confusion.
My point is that people that want to slow down AI progress have to look at the global pipeline that takes in raw materials and outputs AI compute. ASML is a single entity that plays a very important role in producing lithography products for this pipeline. You could use activism, cultural pressure, politics, physical means, etc. to slow down or stop ASMLs lithography production thereby slowing/limiting AI compute.
My question is basically asking "Will anti AI people try to use this particular AI compute pipeline piece to slow down AI progress?"