꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
The Mark My Words series takes actionable and popular posts from the Mark My Words subreddit and turns them into a prediction market. Hope you enjoy the format!
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
A mass deportation policy targeting undocumented immigrants is officially implemented by the U.S. government AND
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food shows an increase of 15% or more within 12 months of the policy's implementation date
The market will resolve as "No" if:
No mass deportation policy is implemented by December 31, 2025, OR
A mass deportation policy is implemented, but the CPI for food does not increase by 15% or more within 12 months of implementation
Implementation of a mass deportation policy is defined as:
An official executive order or enacted legislation that aims to deport at least 1 million undocumented immigrants within a 12-month period
The CPI for food will be measured using the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' official data
The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
A mass deportation policy is announced but not implemented due to legal challenges or other factors
Major external events (e.g., global food crisis, war) significantly impact food prices independently of immigration policy
Resolution Sources:
Official U.S. government announcements and legislation
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI data
Reports from reputable economic analysis firms
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@BrunoParga It will necessarily also include many other events. If you think that will coincide with any policy deporting millions of undocumented, then you can factor that into your prediction.
> An official executive order or enacted legislation that aims to deport at least 1 million undocumented immigrants within a 12-month period
Will make this market "active" and then we check the CPI for food 12 months after its implementation has finished.