The U.S. Supreme Court is set to review Free Speech Coalition, Inc. v. Paxton, a pivotal case challenging a Texas law that requires age verification for accessing online content deemed "harmful to minors." The law, HB 1181, mandates that websites with significant sexual material must verify users' ages and display government-dictated health warnings about pornography. The plaintiffs, including the Free Speech Coalition, argue that the law violates the First Amendment by imposing undue burdens on adult free speech and privacy. The case has already seen a split decision in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, with the Supreme Court now set to determine whether the law will stand or be struck down.

Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule in favor of the plaintiffs (Free Speech Coalition, Inc., et al.) in Free Speech Coalition, Inc. v. Paxton by July 1st 2025?

Resolution Criteria:

- Yes: This outcome will resolve as "Yes" if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a final, binding decision that overturns the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals' ruling. Specifically, the Court must rule that the Texas law (HB 1181) is unconstitutional under the First Amendment in its entirety or rule that the specific provisions of the law requiring age verification are invalid and cannot be enforced.

- No: This outcome will resolve as "No" if the U.S. Supreme Court issues a final, binding decision that upholds the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals' ruling, either fully or partially. Specifically, the Court must allow the core provisions of the Texas law (HB 1181) regarding age verification to remain in effect, with no substantial alterations that would prevent the law's enforcement.

- N/A: The market will resolve to N/A if the U.S. Supreme Court does not issue a final, binding decision on the merits by July 1st 2025. This includes scenarios such as:

- The Court declines to hear the case after granting certiorari.

- The Court dismisses the case without a ruling on the merits.

- The case is remanded to a lower court without a ruling on the merits by the Supreme Court.

- The case is settled or withdrawn before a Supreme Court ruling.