https://x.com/RealRossU/status/1817694204560314854

This market considers the opposite counterfactual, will Ulbricht's sentence be commuted if Trump is not elected:

Ironically I'd actually consider voting for him if this market was ~95%, but it seems people share my opinion of his trustworthiness on that subject.

Not advising you to vote for him, but 45% is also pretty non-trivial.

Eh, I'd say it's still negative EV overall, for me. Hard to judge such minuscule quantities accurately though - an individual vote (especially in a relatively uncompetitive district) is worth so close to zero that the time investment to calculate with it becomes a nontrivial portion of the value calculation.

Yes, in a non-swing state your vote really makes no difference and is about as important as responding to a Manifold poll. (*Regarding the Presidency. Local races may still be important.)

Would this market be allowed to resolve N/A if Trump were not elected @ManifoldPolitics , seeing that there is a stance on markets to not resolve N/A?

@ScipioFabius We haven't formalized a new policy on this yet so my position is that Maxim Lott can do whatever he wants.

@ScipioFabius @ManifoldPolitics yes, it would resolve to N/A.