This market will resolve yes if, on Jan 1, 2026, Americans are able to legally trade online on elections.
Further details, in case the answer falls in a "gray area":
The market will resolve "yes" if election betting is de facto legal -- meaning that Americans are welcomed on an online exchange with operations in the United States.
For example, if election betting is available for new customers on PredictIt.org, Kalshi.com, or anything similar, then this will resolve yes.
Note: If ONLY the "Iowa Electronic Markets" is taking bets under a "no action" letter, I will resolve this as "no," because the market is so small and limited, has a $500 limit, and requires users to physically mail in a form and a check.
If Americans have to use VPNs to bet, this will resolve as "no."
Added clarification May 13: This is for real money betting. If Americans can only do play money betting with some contests/prizes, this will resolve to “no.”
1,000
1.00I'm confused by the 2028 vs. 2026 gap. Two broad paths to legality:
1) The Kalshi/PredictIt lawsuits succeed. I am not a lawyer, but they appear to be likely to resolve before 2026
2) The CFTC changes course, probably via new nominations of Republican Commissioners. That would happen if and only if Mr. Trump wins in 2024, and his nominees would likely be confirmed by early/mid 2025.
I don't see either of these changing between 2026 and 2028.
@PlasmaBallin I have the same question here: as written, the question does not require that it be a market directly expressed in real money, or even exchangeable for real money.