Between the recent blog posts and the leaks about publishing schedules for adjacent books, he will announce the book at world con and release the end of this year.

That's only at 7-11% today!

/MarkBowen/will-george-r-r-martin-or-his-publi

/JohannGoode/will-grrm-announce-winds-of-winter

And for releasing this year:

/_deleted_/will-george-rr-martin-publish-winds

/FernandoFrancoFelix/will-the-winds-of-winter-be-release-c7384b93b75f

I’m releasing a very long and boring autobiographical account of how cold I was last January and titling it this.

Unlikely on priors. Book was allegedly a few months away from being done in 2016. So the book has been "almost done" for 6.5 years. By Laplace's law of succession (sort of), that implies a 23% chance that the book comes out in any given 1.5-year period.

If you count the full period since ADWD release (2011) as the reference class, that's 13 years, but I don't think that's the right reference class. AFFC and ADWD took 5+ years, so IMO there was essentially zero chance ex ante that TWOW would have been finished in <3 years, and a low chance it would have been finished in <5 years (i.e. pre-2016).

Authored by GRRM, or finished by someone else?

That would be great. Let me know if it goes above 60%.

It did