Will AI be capable of fast self improvement before physical AI robots are massively used for improving AI capabilities?
Mini
4
Ṁ742080
76%
chance
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I.e. Will self improvement starts before that physical robot (with AI) are used significantly and massively to do AI research / improve or produce AI hardware?
AI in robots must be at least level of GPT-4.
The AI don't need to be run in the robot but most actions are chosen by AIs.
Significantly and massively: means that they have a significant impact on the capability improvement of AIs (At least doing 33% of the work in an important section of the capability improvement chain (e.g. running chip manufacturing fab))
Fast self improvement= takeoff leading to superinteligence
Resolved as soon as it is observed and confirmed.
Resolve to NA if no fast self improvement happens.
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