Arrest and indictment of Pavel Durov (Wikipedia)
Resolves Yes if Pavel Durov is actually going to prison as a result of this whole situation.
Resolves No once the charges are dropped, or if there is a non-prison sentence, or if there is some other conclusion to all of this. Also resolves No if three years from now there is no meaningful conclusion to this story.
Update (Aug 26): Regarding the exact definition of “go to jail” in this market - Pavel Durov has to be sentenced to no less than three months of actual prison (and start serving it), or has to spend 1.5 times as that (4.5 months) awaiting his trial in something generally resembling regular European/American prison, for this market to be resolved Yes. A sufficiently strong combination of both, or anything else resembling such incarceration, also will be a Yes. Thank you.
1,000
1.00@pluffASMR I added a large limit order @38% if you want to get rid of the rest of your position
He was placed under judicial supervision and is not allowed to leave France. He also has to pay $5M EUR. Does that count as a "non-prison sentence" and a NO resolution? @McLovin
@adssx this market may resolve earlier even if the situation concludes in favor of Pavel Durov, only…it has to, like, actually conclude.
I mean, according to this paragraph:
Resolves No once the charges are dropped, or if there is a non-prison sentence, or if there is some other conclusion to all of this.
- essentially, there are at least two things that could happen:
a) All charges are dropped and Mr. Durov is again a totally free man.
b) He’s convicted, but ordered to pay a fine, or anything else but not an actual prison.
So far, I mean, his trial hasn’t even started…so, yeah, nothing to resolve so far, the way I see it.
From an [official Telegram announcement](https://t.me/telegram/329):
📱 Telegram abides by EU laws, including the Digital Services Act — its moderation is within industry standards and constantly improving.
🛩 Telegram's CEO Pavel Durov has nothing to hide and travels frequently in Europe.
🫤 It is absurd to claim that a platform or its owner are responsible for abuse of that platform.
🌐 Almost a billion users globally use Telegram as means of communication and as a source of vital information.
👍 We’re awaiting a prompt resolution of this situation. Telegram is with you all.
He'll most likely go to pre-trial detention. Hard to tell how long.
""Pavel Durov finira en détention provisoire, c'est certain", commente un enquêteur auprès de TF1/LCI. "Sur sa plateforme, il laissait se commettre un nombre incalculable de délits et de crimes pour lesquels il ne fait rien pour modérer ou coopérer", analyse une source proche du dossier.
Sa détention provisoire à l'issue de sa mise en examen ne fait en effet aucun doute. Pavel Durov, milliardaire, dispose de moyens conséquents pour prendre la fuite et ses garanties de représentation ne vont guère convaincre les juges." ( https://www.tf1info.fr/justice-faits-divers/info-tf1-lci-le-fondateur-et-pdg-de-la-messagerie-cryptee-telegram-interpelle-en-france-2316072.html )
Because he’s bragged for years about refusing to help law enforcement in all cases, despite Telegram’s poor security meaning he has access to the information they need and their responsiveness to takedown requests meaning they have knowledge of the content, so he can argue neither ignorance nor infeasibility. He (or Telegram, at least) has specific knowledge of how they’re enabling child abusers and other criminals and refuses to cooperate with law enforcement, while being an EU citizen. That’s not a good way to stay out of prison.
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Pretrial détention (détention provisoire) is ordered by a judge in France (Juge des libertés et de la détention). It can last up to 4 years for crimes committed outside France. So I think pretrial detention should resolve YES.
Then what about house arrest?
No, a house arrest definitely won’t be a Yes. Maybe it might feel as prison to Mr. Durov…still won’t be a Yes resolution.
I sort of have a feeling that it’s time for me to sort of have the final word regarding the exact resolution conditions, for the sake of all the wonderful people here:
Pavel Durov has to be sentenced to no less than three months of actual prison (and start serving it), or has to spend 1.5 times as that (4.5 months) awaiting his trial in something generally resembling regular European/American prison, for this market to be resolved Yes. A sufficiently strong combination of both, or anything else resembling such incarceration, also will be a Yes.
Ok I hope that will do. I’ll probably update market’s description soon. Antoine thank you for asking for clarification.
Good piece arguing that Telegram is under Russian control: