Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by May 1, 2025, President Donald Trump has publicly announced a cessation or significant reduction of tariffs imposed on Chinese imports, effectively ending the ongoing tariff dispute between the United States and China. The announcement must be verifiable through reputable news sources. If no such announcement is made by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

As of April 29, 2025, the United States and China are engaged in an escalating trade war characterized by reciprocal tariffs. In early April, President Trump imposed a comprehensive 10% tariff on nearly all U.S. imports, including a 34% duty on Chinese goods, bringing total tariffs on China to over 60%. In response, China has implemented retaliatory measures and expressed a firm stance against U.S. tariffs. (ft.com, hindustantimes.com)

Recent developments indicate a potential de-escalation. On April 24, 2025, China stated that there are no ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. and emphasized that the U.S. must make the first move to de-escalate the trade war. (axios.com) Additionally, President Trump has announced a 90-day suspension on most global tariffs, reducing them to 10%, while increasing tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, signaling a strategic pivot in the intense trade war. (apnews.com)

Traders should monitor official statements from the White House and reputable news outlets for any announcements regarding the cessation or reduction of tariffs on Chinese imports before May 1, 2025.