MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
Mini
6
Ṁ151
2027
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8090/polygenic-score-for-intelligence-in-2026/ Resolves PROB.
#Science
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
1 Comment
Sort by:

What is it right now?

Related questions

Will the average IQ/intelligence of manifold users in 2025 be lower than that of 2023?
69% chance
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055
27% chance
More than 5% of children in the US born from embryos with polygenic risk assessments by 2040?
57% chance
Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?
50% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
22% chance
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
52% chance
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
-
Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101?
85% chance
In 2024, creation of IQ PRS score calculator for https://diyhpl.us/wiki/genetic-modifications like OakVar for longevity?
50% chance

Related questions

Will the average IQ/intelligence of manifold users in 2025 be lower than that of 2023?
69% chance
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
52% chance
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055
27% chance
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
More than 5% of children in the US born from embryos with polygenic risk assessments by 2040?
57% chance
Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
-
Will a GWAS be broadly cited by hereditarians as strong evidence for a > 40% heritability of cognitive ability by 2035?
50% chance
Will GPT-5 have an estimated IQ higher than 101?
85% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
22% chance
In 2024, creation of IQ PRS score calculator for https://diyhpl.us/wiki/genetic-modifications like OakVar for longevity?
50% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout