MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?
Mini
6
Ṁ151
2027
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8090/polygenic-score-for-intelligence-in-2026/ Resolves PROB.
#Science
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
1 Comment
Sort by:

What is it right now?

Related questions

Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
-
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
25% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
+5% 1d59% chance
Will the average IQ/intelligence of manifold users in 2025 be lower than that of 2023?
69% chance
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055
27% chance
More than 5% of children in the US born from embryos with polygenic risk assessments by 2040?
58% chance

Related questions

Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?
-
Is there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
59% chance
What will be the best score on Cybench by December 31st 2025?
Will the average IQ/intelligence of manifold users in 2025 be lower than that of 2023?
69% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2026?
25% chance
What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will a genius grant be awarded to someone acknowledged to be the result of genetic IQ selection before 2055
27% chance
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
More than 5% of children in the US born from embryos with polygenic risk assessments by 2040?
58% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout