When will an AI lab report 50% or better result on ZeroBench? | Manifold

When will an AI lab report 50% or better result on ZeroBench?

3

Ṁ415

2033

1D

1W

1M

ALL

17%

2025

20%

2026

24%

2027

21%

2028

21%

2029

24%

2030

24%

2031

20%

2032

28%

2033 or later

ZeroBench is a difficult visual benchmark for multi-modal models
https://zerobench.github.io/

This market is about the main questions, pass@1.

Update 2025-08-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the 50%+ pass@1 on ZeroBench's main questions is reported in a given year, only that year resolves to YES; all other years resolve to NO.

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If it happens in e.g. 2027, does just that year, or that and all before, or that and all after resolve to YES?

@TheAllMemeingEye Just that year resolves to YES, the rest resolves to NO.

bought Ṁ10 2033 or later NO

@Metastable thanks 👍

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