TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?

Plus

218

Ṁ89k

2029

ALL

40%

None of these will happen by EOY 2028

36%

TikTok will be sold to a non-Chinese company

17%

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

The TikTok "ban" will be rendered unenforceable by courts (with little chance of appeal/overturn)

1.0%

[option already ruled out, as the ban is already law] The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

0.8%

[option already ruled out] The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

Will resolve to the first thing that definitely happens

Update 2025-11-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
- Movement toward becoming law is no longer a potential resolution since the ban has been signed into law.

Update 2025-15-01 (PST): - If TikTok shuts down entirely, it will presumably not be available in the app stores, and the market will resolve accordingly. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-18-01 (PST): - If Trump uses executive power to keep TikTok operational, the market will resolve to 'none of these happen.' (AI summary of creator comment)

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16 Comments

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1mo

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/apple-google-tiktok-app-stores-rcna192154

2mo

answered1y

[option already ruled out] The TikTok "ban" will be vetoed by a president (with little chance of override)

2mo

@MichaelBlume I want to clarify that I'm pretty confident I will not resolve to this option. The relevant law has already been signed by President Biden. If Trump somehow uses his executive power to keep TikTok in operation (presumably by ordering his AG not to enforce the law) that would be an interesting outcome, and one I'll wish I had included as an option, but not a veto. Presumably I'd resolve to "none of these happen"

2mo

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3294946/tiktok-shut-down-us-operations-sunday-barring-last-minute-reprieve-sources-say

2mo

Note: If TikTok shuts down entirely, it will (presumably) not be available in the app stores, and the market will resolve accordingly.

answered1y

[option already ruled out, as the ban is already law] The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

2mo

I'm avoiding trading on this market myself but I'll say that I cannot imagine a circumstance in which I'd resolve to this option now that the ban has become law

8mo

I'm curious what "None of these will happen" looks like -- maybe the executive simply doesn't bother enforcing the law?

11mo

@SanijsVilnis

Hi You no

reposted 11mo

@MichaelBlume Good market, especially with the bill looking very likely to pass! I'm adding some subsidy and boosting!

answered1y

TikTok will become unavailable in Apple/Google app stores in the US for at least 30 days

Both, Either?

@DavidFWatson Let's go with a majority of smartphone users in the US will not be able to download TikTok from their preferred app store.

@MichaelBlume Wait, doesn’t that just mean this resolves 100% based on the Apple App Store?

@DavidFWatson Why even mention Google?

answered1y

[option already ruled out, as the ban is already law] The TikTok "ban" will go at least a year without movement toward becoming law

"movement toward becoming law" means procedural stuff, amendments, floor votes, stuff you would see in the congressional record

bought Ṁ100 [option already rule... NO11mo

@MichaelBlume So since it's now signed into law, that option is guaranteed to resolve NO, right?

2mo

@PlasmaBallin sorry for not responding sooner. Yeah, I can't imagine why I'd resolve to this

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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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