The bet will be considered POSITIVE if:
Ukrainian armed forces succeed in downing, severely damaging, or disabling the functioning of all confirmed Russian Aerospace Forces A-50 aircraft through kinetic military action by December 31st, 2025 (as of 24.02.24 3 out of 7 in order in RUAF, 2 down by UAF in 2024).
This is verified by photographic or video documentation from journalistic, observer, or military personnel on the ground or providing secondary confirmation of the specific aircraft tail number targeted.
The bet will be considered NEGATIVE if:
At least 3 Russian A-50 aircraft are not confirmed as downed or damaged beyond repair by Ukrainian forces prior to the December 31st, 2025 deadline.
Claims of additional A-50 aircraft disabled are made but not independently verified with confirmation.
Any claims which emerge still requiring verification, or incidents with inconclusive proof of aircraft type targeted will result in a N/A outcome after the 31st December 2025.
1,000
1.00Bet on Russo-Ukraine war here:
Will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict" by:
EOY 2025?
EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-the-ukraine-war-enter-a-state?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
If any side secures a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, what will be the causes?
pro-Russian ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/if-russia-secures-a-substantively-p?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
pro-Ukraine ceasefire?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/how-could-ukraine-win-a-war-against?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Transnistria be annexed by Russia until EOY 2025?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-transnistria-be-annexed-by-rus?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will one or more Ukrainian private military companies participate in battalion-sized (500+ soldier) combat operations?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-one-or-more-ukrainian-private?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukraine destroy at least 5 strategic bombers this year, preventing their further use for shelling Ukraine?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukraine-destroy-at-least-5-str?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian frontline collapse until EOY 2024?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-frontline-collapse-u?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will Ukrainian authorities lift the travel ban for male citizens aged 18-60 by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-ukrainian-authorities-lift-the?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M
Will commercial flights resume from any Ukrainian airport by January 1, 2026?
https://manifold.markets/MichaelVoss/will-commercial-flights-resume-from?r=TWljaGFlbFZvc3M