First country with a fertility rate above 2.1 for three consecutive years.
The intent of this market is to use it as a proxy to predict which policy interventions will be most likely to successfully increase birth rates, by looking at county odds as they are announced and implemented.
THE FINE PRINT:
In the event of some dramatic status quo interruption, I will suspend the country's count for the duration. e.g. if Taiwan posts a 2.3 in the year before an invasion by the PRC, a 1.8 and 1.9 during the invasion, and then a 2.5 and 2.4 in the years afterwards, I would resolve in favor of Taiwan
I've excluded North Korea because its society and economy are so unusual that its experience doesn't provide many practical takeaways.
If a country's statistics are considered untrustworthy by international scholars, I will wait until it's approx 95% certain they've qualified.
The "Other" option is a placeholder for newly created or newly qualifying countries. Like if Korea splits into more pieces, or Vietnam or Mongolia undergo a demographic transition as dramatic as the other countries listed. I will have a high bar in judging this.
1,000
1.00Mongolia: 2.90, Philippines: 2.78, Laos: 2.5, Cambodia: 2.3, Indonesia: 2.2, Myanmar: 2.17
All of these are decreasing though, except for Mongolia, which has had steady birthrate for the past 10 years but also a flat gdp per capita growth rate. I guess you are only considering the richer east asian countries?
@Sinclair Yeah exactly, the ones that are well and truly into their demographic transition. Like I mention, I reserve the right to add some of those if they ever find themselves in a similar position to one of the listed countries.