I recommend being more specific about the resolution criteria here. The current case-shiller home price index (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA) is 293; in Feb 2020 the index was at 213; within 5% of 213 is 202-224. A fall from 293 to 224 is a 24% drop, which seems very unlikely to me (as much as this Georgist, Yimby, soon-to-be-first-time-homebuyer would love to see it happen!) based on the spread of forecasts by big research firms such as the ones listed in this article: https://fortune.com/2023/05/10/housing-market-home-price-predictions/. A reduction like that would sadly probably only result from some kind of really massive economic catastrophe (the bottom of the post-2007 housing market was a similar ~27% peak-to-trough drop).

I guess "most US cities" means that the index itself wouldn't have to drop by 24% -- eg the western US and coastal cities could drop by 24%, while the eastern & southern areas of the country could drop by only 10% or something. But this scenario still seems like it is well outside the range of mainline predictions from big research firms.

In nominal prices? Or will you control for inflation? If the latter you should find a way to remove the effect of house prices in inflation

Home prices in most US cities will be at February 2020 prices by September of 2024, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition