This will be the first genocide in history where the size of the genocided population grew.

@Shai Probably ~100K Gazans fled to Egypt, so there was a net decline.

It is incredibly unlikely.

The birth rate is very high. Usually population rises by 2% each year. Current death count would mean it would barely offset the expected increase.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_State_of_Palestine

Based on which source would this market resolve?

I think this market is about fairly priced. Of course Israel is not trying to ethnically cleanse Gaza, but from a 2.3M prewar population, the NYT estimates 100K people have fled and deaths are probably going to be around 50K. It's unlikely but not super unreasonable if 150K more people flee in the next few months because it gets much easier to flee, or if the number of people who fled is undercounted. I think 15% is about right.

What about people born? They have a fertility rate of like 20.

I feel like all of my profits are making money from correcting Gaza markets, and then I lose them all from making dumb bets on everything else. But at least there are a lot of Gaza markets

Is wikipedia going to be used to resolve the market?

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/13/israel-gaza-hamas-evacuate-un-ground-operation