Will Waymo give public driverless rides to/from SJC airport terminal area by the end of 2025?
4
Ṁ588
Dec 31
55%
chance

Resolves YES if it is reputably shown that Waymo has begun serving pickups OR dropoffs from any SJC airport "terminal area". Resolves NO at close otherwise.

"Terminal area" being:

  • A curb on the main road (Airport Blvd/Terminal Dr) adjacent to (incl. across the street from) the terminal.

  • Not within a parking lot or parking garage structure (parking aisles, spots, driveways)

  • The "7 Autonomous Vehicle Rideshare" area from the Reddit post would count as YES.


Public = not just Waymo employees/friends/family etc.

Paid or unpaid does not matter.

Relevant news:
https://waymo.com/blog?modal=short-waymo-at-sjc "We’ll begin fully autonomous testing this fall and intend to offer a commercial service to riders later this year." (Sept 4)
https://www.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/1nxar2c/new_waymo_sign_at_san_jose_airport_sjc/

(related for SFO https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-public-driverless-r-dAP5z0sLCz)

  • Update 2025-10-29 10:11am (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The "7 Autonomous Vehicle Rideshare" area mentioned in the Reddit post counts as YES for resolution purposes, even though it may be described as being in a parking lot area across from the terminals. The creator has clarified this is within their intent for "terminal area."

  • Note: Traders who bet based on the previous ambiguity may request refunds for losses incurred within 24 hours of this clarification.

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bought Ṁ25 YES

gpt-5-pro gives me 59%: https://imgur.com/a/DLFeapn

bought Ṁ250 NO

Please take extra care to confirm that the service is being offered to a terminal and not to nearby parking lots. In the Reddit post that you linked, someone in the comments says it's actually a parking lot across from the terminals but not the terminal itself.

@SteveMichaels I've updated the question to better match my intent, which does include the Reddit post area for YES. If you want to change your position in the next 24 hours, I will refund any losses you've incurred from this ambiguity.

sold Ṁ243 NO

@MingweiSamuel Yes, I'd like a refund. The difference is just 7 mana. Thank you.