People are speculating that this post:
implies that Elon wants to force his posts to appear in everyone's feed even if he's blocked.
I have blocked Elon Musk until end of 2025.
This market resolves YES if I see any post of his on my X feed.
Resolves 50% if I see "click here to show this post".
Resolves NO if I don't see him.
Doesn't count if I navigate to his profile or add him to a list or see one of his secret alts(that you guys don't know about, but I do).
Has to be organically, in the feed.
A quote of Elon counts for YES if shown in full.
Quotes of blocked users are currently hidden with a "click here to see" placeholder and that won't count for 50% since it's not a change to the status quo.
A screenshot of an Elon Musk post won't count for either YES or 50%.
"For you", "Following", or any list-based feed all count as "my X feed". Any future similar feed-based feature may also count.
1,000
1.00https://apnews.com/article/x-musk-blocking-change-harassment-2f31853749daeb86db70db53f8b1f62f this change is implemented. Musk can see your posts even if you block him, no change to whether you see his.
I guess he could go and do this anyway, but the feature announcement that got us talking about this seems resolved.
Looks like this pop-up from today agrees with the interpretation that you don't see musk's posts, but he can see yours.
Corner cases: if they do the change without thinking it through, blocked users show up in feeds and that is publicly demonstrated, but they get the big incredibly predictable backlash and backpeddle (on the feed part) within a couple days... That would still be a YES?
But if @Mira didn't look at Twitter in those few days... That's a NO as defined?
I would be open to both of those flipping, as I think that'd better reflect the spirit of the market. Or maybe this is just caveat emptor.
@JamesBaker3 I have to see it, so if it happens and is reported but doesn't happen to me it won't count. Whatever X claims("it's a bug", etc.) won't matter: Only the fact of whether I see the post without intending to.
Which also means if I delete my X account, this market can immediately resolve NO.
I have no doubt he will, at some point
"X will soon change the functionality behind its block button so that if you block an account, they will still be able to see your public posts, according to changes to X’s website spotted by independent app researcher Nima Owji. Elon Musk confirmed these changes on Monday, noting that blocked accounts will still not be able to engage with users who have blocked them, but they will soon be able to see their posts."
@FergusArgyll This just says that people you've blocked will be able to see your posts, not that you'll be shown theirs. So if OP has Elon blocked, then Elon will be able to see OP's posts, but OP still won't see any of Elon's posts, which means the market will resolve to NO. Am I missing something here?
@JamesBaker3 It still doesn't: I'm not going to add him to a list, and if I intentionally add him using the API those posts won't count. But if he makes himself show up in one of my list feeds without me causing him to, it'll count.