@MolbyDick Any thoughts on Tesla delaying their annual meeting?

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/10/business/tesla-annual-meeting-delay

@TimothyJohnson5c16 This is because of Elon’s comp package, committee was setup in April, and the board needs to take as much time as needed to ensure there is no possibility of a second Delaware nightmare, we should hear about the Comp Plan soon, to allow enough time for voting / disputes etc

if I were Elon, I wouldn’t want the stock to run as much before I got my comp package, tho I expect Wall Street to front run

let’s see eh? we definitely in for an interesting few weeks and months

the same surprise exponential from ramping cars that we saw in 2019-2021 will be the same level of surprise (but even more impactful) with Robotaxi Ramp

Watch the curve!

I will look back in disbelief that I was able to purchase $TSLA below $300 weeks after the first robotaxi rides took place

ur welcome future me :)

@MolbyDick 😎

Clear for launch!

@MolbyDick 🤭

@MolbyDick if you're talking about a long view (say, 3-10 years), I agree that TSLA may be a reasonably good price to buy right now. I'm not buying any, but it's a maybe.

But this manifold market isn't about a long view. It's about where the stock price will be in just a little over three months.

I'm curious if you're still optimistic about the share-price more than doubling by 10/10/2025.

I'm quite skeptical that the market will reward a fast ramp-up, even if it happens. The profitability of the fleet will need to be proven, not just growth. It's not software, where scale drastically improves profit margins, the are significant per vehicle and per ride costs.

@DanHomerick I am still confident this market will be resolved yes

@MolbyDick interesting.

I do hope that's not because you're planning to ignore reality when you resolve. Manifold has had enough of that nonsense lately.

@DanHomerick fwiw, while manifold would overrule a false resolution in this case regardless, in the original market, with vastly higher stakes (many millions of mana), @MolbyDick had a plausible opportunity to resolve it in his favor on an edge case (a bizarre/not-meaningful/momentary spike in the after hours price IIRC) and he chose not to. So I would not be worried!

@DanHomerick once you understand what it takes for Wall Street to start modeling a new disruption like this, you’ll see what I’m talking about

robotaxi doesn’t have to provide a single dollar of profit this year for Wall Street to start modeling it, they just need to prove they can scale, they will be able to make an extremely nice profit, more so then a company like Waymo which is taken seriously

@Ziddletwix 🎯 the real stakes I care about is the options market ;)

@Ziddletwix 🎯 the real stakes that matter to me is the options market ;)

@Ziddletwix here's a derivative market:

"Will TSLABull fairly resolve this market?"

https://manifold.markets/DanHomerick/will-tslabull-fairly-resolve-this-m?r=RGFuSG9tZXJpY2s

@DanHomerick I’m only interested in derivatives that will help me increase my share count in $TSLA

@MolbyDick agreed that TSLA doesn't have to make a profit from the taxi service yet, but I don't see how they can provide convincing profitability guidance until they have several quarters of significant ride-volume.

There are costs for cleaning, maintenance, depreciation, charging infrastructure, electricity, customer support, liability insurance, lawyers etc. Tesla needs to show they can ramp up this line of business with attractive and improving profit margins to really get investors excited.

I expect they can do that, but am skeptical that it will happen on a timeline relevant to this market.

@DanHomerick the biggest cost is the actual car, everything else is marginal (not to say you dont need to have a really tight ship, and do things efficiently, hence Tesla has developed an autonomous clean robot for the vehicles)

charging doesn’t matter because they are already and have been investing in infrastructure and that’s a profitable business within Tesla

No one is ready for what’s coming.

I tried to warn yall

@MolbyDick thanks for the mana

There are a lot of good limit orders up for you to buy if you are still that confident and confident in the robotaxi potential

wild that I got to buy Tesla below 300 days before robotaxi launch. You’re welcome future self, you should feel pride reading this, enjoy it.

What’s going to happen to $TSLA in the next 4 months will shook many. Some will call me lucky, others will say it’s all scam.

The reality is that FMH breaks down in disruptive companies, and that many of you need to read the Innovators Dilemma

@MolbyDick I think Tesla's robotaxi launch in Austin will happen, but it's going to look pathetic compared to Waymo. It definitely won't be making much revenue in the next four months.

And in case you were thinking of Optimus, their first team lead says the plan doesn't make sense: https://www.businessinsider.com/teslas-first-optimus-lead-doubts-about-elon-musks-robot-dream-2025-5

@TimothyJohnson5c16

It absolutely won’t look pathetic, what matters is the graph of launching the first fully robotaxi rides to how quickly they scale in cities and fleet and miles driven relative to Waymo. That’s what matters. Tesla will outscale Waymo easily, if you understand the fundamentals it would be clear to you.

By mid next year Tesla will be doing more rides then Waymo and will have a much bigger operating fleet. Not to mention Waymo will never be able to compete with Tesla on margin and cost bc they are not a manufacturer lol.

And for the Optimus Robot, you have no idea how silly you sound. Humanoids are the only way to mass scale. there’s a reason he’s a “former lead”

It’s like when the ex lead of starlink said it was impossible to build the Satellites at the rate and efficiency Elon wanted in the time frame he called it “absurd and impossible”. Same stories were floating around a mere year or so before the first starlink launches. If you don’t go after the humanoid form you would have to scale hundreds of different form factors to completely automate the factory. Not to mention the fact that the entire world is built for humans.

@MolbyDick Waymo has been rolling out fairly slowly, but they have a significant market share in Austin now. And I think the fact that they survived while other companies were forced to exit (e.g., Cruise, Uber) is evidence that their strategy is working.

Elon is fine with blowing up a few SpaceX rockets on occasion, but he can't afford any mistakes like that with robotaxis, especially given how his reputation is in shambles after the last few months.

So either Tesla has to go slowly, or they're going to kill someone and be forced to slow down.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 no, you’re lacking a fundamental understanding of the difference between Waymo’s aproach and Tesla’s aproach, the problem each of them have.

Waymo has a lidar based, HD Mapping heuristics aproach, where for every city they want to launch they have to do extensive mapping and tweaking to get the model to work flawlessly in each location.

Tesla is a generalized vision only aproach, which will allow them to scale much quicker with a lot less time between getting a city ready to go live. Waymo starts mapping about a year before they launch sometimes even more. While Tesla only needs a couple months to make sure the model is working extremely well in that location and doing tiny tweaks if necessary.

And Tesla will start slow, hence only 10-20 cars on the first week, but will be able to scale much much quicker then Waymo could.

So currently Tesla has a software problem.

However, Waymo has a much more difficult problem, a hardware one. Waymo does not build its own cars. They will forever be limited on how quickly they can scale and what price they can offer.

By EOY 2026 Tesla will have more ~1 million robotaxis operating in the fleet give or take a couple hundred thousand

@MolbyDick I understand that Tesla's approach would be cheaper and scale faster if the software works. But I don't think it's going to work reliably enough.

You're welcome to bet on it here:
https://manifold.markets/TimothyJohnson5c16/will-tesla-have-a-fleet-of-at-least?play=true

@TimothyJohnson5c16 my re launch model Y has done 500 miles of no intervention straight in 3 weeks of driving around Miami past traffic, and road construction.

Relative to how things were 6 months ago, then 12 months, etc. it’s pretty fricking incredible and reliable. What matters the most tho is the rate of improvement. And this is the supervised builds of FSD, Tesla has had unsupervised builds for a couple of months now and they keep iterating, and now they are already doing driverless for employees in Austin, driverless from factory to parking lot (through roads with other drivers) in Berlin, Austin, and Fremont. (And those don’t have someone supervising it every step of the way)

Tesla also has the most data for training the Waymo by a vast margin, its a foregone conclusion that Tesla will be the most reliable option