Let's look past Trump and Biden for a second. And Kamala.
JD Vance is likely to be the next Vice President of the United States. 60%+ according to the latest Polymarket odds, and many markets here.
Ever since LBJ, and removing obvious exceptions [Spiro Agnew, Dick Cheney] the rates at which young "normal" VPs have run successfully for president has been somewhere in the neighborhood of 50/50.
Vance will be 40 years old if he is inaugurated VP in January. He will have 30+ years to run for President after Trump retires, as Biden had from 1988 until finally being elected in 2020.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance
What will be Vance's odds to become president one day? As of January 31st 2025.
Since this is a meta-market, resolution criteria will be difficult to know ahead of time.
I will pick the best market that we can find, in this priority order
1. Polymarket market with $100,000+ wagered
2. Manifold market with 100+ participants and 100,000+ Mana wagered
3. Other futures markets [we will pick the most robust]
Two other caveats.
Firstly, if we don't have a robust market that looks 10+ years into the future, but there is a good market for "Will JD Vance be President by 2030?" -- then we will use that and simply add 25% to the odds.
For example if the market for "Will JD Vance be President by 2030?" is at 50%... we will use 0.50 * 1.25 = 0.625 for our market.
[If his odds are 80% for 2030... we will use 85% for our market. Since we can only extend by 25% of the remaining 20%.]
Why 25%? No reason but 50% seemed too way too high and we are very likely to get a robust futures market for JD Vance at least for 2028 or 2032 if he is elected VP, and probably also if he is not. We would prefer to find a longer-looking market is possible. But if the best futures markets only look out 4-10 years, we will tack on 25%.
The second caveat is that we will try not to extend resolution past Jan 31st 2025 but we may have to. Remember that this is a meta-market about future markets.
Also if we have two or more very robust markets, we will average those odds. As we get closer to resolution, I will be clear about what markets are in play for resolution, and update this space.
1,000
1.00@Moscow25 real money markets won't do that long term because the interest rate issues are terrible. maybe manifold will but the probability won't mean anything. i think metaculus would be fine for this and nothing else would be