Biden's debate performance was not well received.

Polymarket has him dropping out at 38% the night after the debate. With Gavin Newsom leading the field to replace Biden.

https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719546640516

What a roller coaster it's been! With July 2/3 over... the Polymarket odds have oscillated from as high as 80-90% to well below 50% to now at 78% as of July 20th.

Of course this market is for Biden to drop out overall, not before the end of the month. Although the announcement could come any time, including this week.

But will he drop out by end of July 2024? If Biden is still the candidate in August 1st 2024, then the market will resolve NO. Anything else (death, resignation, incapacitation) will resolve as YES.

The Democratic Party convention is on August 19th 2024, so there is a possible "gray area" where Biden thinks he is running (has not said he's dropping out) but is not considered the party nominee officially.

In that unlikely scenario, we will use common sense and Democratic party statements. For example -- and this is very unlikely -- if the Democratic national party endorses another candidate publicly, or announces that Biden should step down and that there is a specific candidate would should replace him. That will also resolve in YES.

In other words, there are three scenarios where Biden steps down or is pushed out:
Biden steps down (makes a statement)

Biden is forced to step down (and acknowledges it)
Biden is forced to step down (but does not acknowledge it)

The market is primarily about the first case but all three resolve in YES.

If Biden is still the candidate but there is the possibility of an open convention, that still resolves NO. Since the convention is in August.

If the convention is set to replace Biden, this is well known, the party announces Biden needs to step down, he will not be the nominee, but Biden does not acknowledge this, that could still resolve as YES. Note that this specific outcome is very unlikely.

In the vast majority of cases, if Biden steps down or is forced out, "Team Biden" -- himself, Jill Biden, etc -- will make this clear in a statement. But this is not the only way that this market can resolve.