Most see this conflict as dragging out for years. It seems that way now.

But with a new US administration after January 2025, there may be less energy for supporting Ukraine's war efforts, and more energy for making a ceasefire deal happen.

JD Vance, in particular, as well as some of his backers like David Sacks, have specifically said they don't want to US supporting the Ukraine war effortws anymore, and prefer to see the sides make a deal. Trump has been less clear, noting that "this would never have happened under my administration."

Less clear also what a Harris administration would do, but it seem in any case the most Ukraine-hawkish members of Congress, will be out of power.

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Determining if a cease fire has taken place can be tricky.

We will use one of two tests.

Either all three sides -- Ukraine, Russia and the USA -- have separately announced a ceasefire, a dwindling of military activity, or a desire to make peace and negotiate with the other, at roughly the same time.

Imagine hostilities continue, but dramatically reduced, and all three sides speak publicly about making a deal for peace, establishment of a buffer zone, demilitarized zone, etc.

The other test would be if there is simply no change of control and very few casualties, for a period of 30 days. I small number of casualties will not mean the ceasefire is off, unless the other side retaliates. In particular, a ceasefire in practice would likely entail:

• little to no offensive artillery

• drones opertions reduced to defensive operations (maintaining a line of control) and surveillance

• in general, defensive only operations, with small exceptions

For example most of the time between 2016 and 2022 in the Donbas would be considered a ceasefire. Even though there was sporadic and sometimes sustained shelling of Donetsk by the Ukrainian side.

As for early August 2024, the Russian / DPR side is conducting too many offensive operations for the current state to be considered a cease fire. And none of the three sides are talking about it seriously, either.

A lasting peace agreement will of course also count as a cease fire.