Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2030.
I keep an ordered list of human moon landing markets here:
/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
See also:
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882
Artemis 2 timeline: /Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
1,000
1.00@RemNi Yeah idk the markets have been getting very bearish on moon landings recently. Massive flip from when I had to downvote all the "moon landing in 2025/2026" markets.
I'm still pretty invested in moon landing 2028 tbh, maybe 2029?
@Mqrius https://www.metaculus.com/questions/649/when-will-the-next-human-being-walk-on-the-moon/
Metaculus currently says May 2029. I haven't been keeping up with the Artemis missions, I guess people are assuming that no news is bad news?
@RemNi Artemis rumblings have been that NASA is considering turning Artemis 3 into a LEO mission where they practice docking and Starship life support. I think that might delay things but not by all that much compared to what markets were already expecting.
It'll definitely be later than 2025/2026 but we already knew that.
I created some more markets for the steps leading up to this.
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-70faa1b11c89
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882
/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-5c7f9f1f2a7f
/Sailfish/will-spacexs-hls-lander-launch-by-2
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun-267f101c256c
/NcyRocks/will-artemis-ii-launch-by-the-end-o