NASA has just selected National Team's proposal for the second human landing system. They intend to use it with Artemis V, which is currently scheduled for 2029. Will the lander be ready in time? If not, they may opt to use another Starship HLS.
If the lander isn't ready yet and they use a Starship mission but call it "Artemis VI", skipping over "Artemis V", then this market resolves to No. The intention is to ask whether the fifth Artemis mission uses National Team's lander.
If there's an "interim" mission used for Artemis 3, such as LEO docking and reentry, then this market applies to Artemis 6 instead of 5. Basically asking, will National Team's lander be ready for a mission after the first two official HLS crew landings?
If the National Team's lander lands before the second HLS crew landing, that also counts as Yes for this market.
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1.00@JoshuaWilkes Then this resolves N/A. If they start using Starship instead of SLS but still use National Team's lander to land on the moon, that would still count as Yes if they stick to the Artemis naming.
I don't really like having conditions dependent on naming, but I'm not sure what a better condition would be. Maybe "if they stick with a similar plan as the Artemis missions", but that's too vague.
@Mqrius what if Artemis 4 is the first manned landing of the programme? (and Artemis 5 uses the HLS intended for 4)
@JoshuaWilkes Good question. I'd say then this market applies to Artemis 6. Is that reasonable? I guess then this is asking if the Artemis mission following the two planned HLS missions is a national team landing.
@JoshuaWilkes By this logic I guess this market should also resolve Yes if the National Team lander lands before the second HLS crew landing. I'll add that in.