When the launch clamps release after ignition, that counts as a launch for this market.
/Mqrius/will-ulas-vulcan-launch-before-the
/Mqrius/will-ulas-vulcan-launch-before-octo
/Mqrius/will-ulas-vulcan-launch-before-2024
See also:
/Mqrius/will-blue-origins-new-glenn-launch-32ffc3496c5c
/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
Artemis 2 timeline: /Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026
Artemis 3 timeline: /Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
1,000
1.00@NGK i got an email notification from your comment, looked at the market, considered that my predictions had shifted a bit, updated the market, and then a split second later you bet as well ^^
It'll be close:
@EvanDaniel it's a maiden launch & they cannot allow any anomalies, any scrub will set them extremely close to 2024 or even delay it to after Jan 1
@KarlisZauers Since their payload needs to get to a specific spot on the moon, and they want good lighting conditions for that spot, Vulcan's launch window is only a few days each month. So if the scrub gives a delay of more than a few days then it's definitely next year.