Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development as a result of safety evaluations?
Mini
7
Ṁ1792050
58%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get
1,000and
1.00
Sort by:
@BenPace They would need to pause training not just product launches. I will probably resolve this as "YES" if they claim to be doing so
@MrMagnolia In a sense, it's natural to pause training, like the pause between when GPT-4 finished training and when OpenAI started training the next generation. Does it qualify if Anthropic pauses for the usual reason but claims it is for safety reasons?
@causal_agency If they claim it is for safety reasons and there's no smoking gun establishing this as false, I will resolve this as YES
Related questions
Related questions
Will Anthropic launch something cryptocurrency related in 2025?
3% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?
27% chance
Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least six months as a result of safety evaluations?
41% chance
Will Anthropic report a net profit for a next phase of Project Vend or its successor before 2026?
21% chance
Will Anthropic be acquired by another company before the end of 2025?
1% chance
Will Anthropic have AI-related IP stolen before 2026?
3% chance
Will Anthropic restrict its models from being used by another IDE, before 2026?
13% chance
Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025?
98% chance
[Metaculus] Will OpenAI, DeepMind, or Anthropic announce a pause on large training runs for safety reasons, before 2026?
3% chance
Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
11% chance