Will SpaceX deploy a functional payload with Starship in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
Plus
23
Ṁ9538Jan 1
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is based on a poll posted on X by Tim Dodd the Everyday Astronaut.
If the result is ambiguous, I may use Everyday Astronaut's followup video, if there is one, as a source for resolution.
See the full list of markets at https://manifold.markets/news/everyday-astronaut-2025-predictions
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
A payload was deployed on the August 30 launch but I don't think it's a functional payload, just a dummy. (Plus it was deployed into a suborbital trajectory guaranteeing its rapid reentry into the atmosphere)
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be four or more SpaceX Starship launches in the second half of 2025?
2% chance
How many Starship launches will occur in 2025?
How many times will SpaceX launch Starship in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
How many SpaceX Starship launches will there be in 2025?
Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship in 2025?
1% chance
Will SpaceX successfully catch the Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
0% chance
Will SpaceX re-fly a Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
1% chance
Will SpaceX manage to deliver the Starship on time in 2025 according to its agreement with NASA?
15% chance
Will SpaceX conduct >100 Starship launches in 2025?
1% chance
Will there be two or more SpaceX Starship launches in the second half of 2025?
96% chance