If this market resolves NO https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the market resolves t, the previous year t-1 and the next year t+1. I will compute (U(t+1) - U(t-1))/U(t) where U is the unemployment from ISTAT (http://dati.istat.it/Index.aspx?QueryId=20744&lang=en) for Sicily and for Italy as a whole. If the result is strictly smaller (with sign) for Sicily I will resolve YES as soon as the data becomes available for year t+1. Otherwise I will resolve NO. What I am trying to measure is the relative change in unemployment.
If bridge construction is started (that market resolves YES) I will resolve N/A.
If ISTAT data becomes unavailable I will attempt to substitute it with some other reliable source or, failing that, also resolve N/A.
If significant territorial changes happen to Italy and/or Sicily that would make the data on unemployment meaningless, I will attempt to track down the unemployment figure corresponding to the territory of Italy and Sicily in 2023 or resolve N/A if I do not manage to.
1,000
1.00If this market resolves NO https://manifold.markets/Ernie/bridge-built-connecting-mainland-it?r=TmFkaWFNYXRzaXVr I will call the year in which the market resolves t
If I understand correctly, this market will definitely resolve on January 1st, 2031. And not based on whether the bridge is built, but whether
At least some work must have started and project must be funded and on track
So your question might likely not measure the effects of the bridge having been built and increased economic activity, as it seems like the bridge opening is currently estimated to happen after 2031?
