Will voter participation in the US be higher in 2024 than 2020?
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This market resolves YES if the share of citizens voting in the US 2024 presidential election is higher than in 2020 (66.8%).
To resolve this I will use the data provided by the US Census Bureau (link to 2020 data). For the 2020 election this was not released until the spring of 2021. Therefore I have set the resolution date in April, 2025.
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2020 had the highest voter turnout in the 21st century, so this may be a bit of a large ask. In addition emergency measures to encourage voting despite COVID may have increased voter participation.
However, COVID also caused about 4 percent of registered voters not to vote in the 2020 election. Controversial supreme court measures may also energize greater democratic participation in 2024.
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