Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if the company currently known as Virgin Galactic still exists in a recognisable form* on January 1st 2030

Resolves NO otherwise, and may resolve earlier if it is sufficiently clear that it would resolve NO (eg bankruptcy with no signs of a possible revival)

*To be considered a recognisable form:

The company must be making progress towards (or currently operating) flights above 80km using an air launched spacecraft; and at least one of the following must still be true:

• 'Virgin' is still in its name (a brand name would count)

• Virgin Group is still a >5% investor (currently 11.9% at the time of writing)

• There's continued development or operation of a vehicle with shared heritage to the SpaceShipTwo vehicle (Virgin Galactic's recently retired spacecraft)

Mergers, acquisitions, or name changes do not disqualify the company as long as the above conditions are still met (though there must be some continuity between the company that exists today and the company that meets the criteria; if Virgin group creates a new and entirely separate spaceflight venture that meets the criteria, that won't be sufficient to resolve YES)

Please keep in mind that the resolution criteria may change for a few days (and please feel free to give feedback)

Background

Virgin Galactic has achieved a number of impressive achievements in the past few years, culminating in successfully completing their first 7 commercial suborbital space-tourism flights in just under a year

However they've now retired their SpaceShipTwo vehicle in order to develop their new Delta class vehicle - a similar spacecraft derived from SpaceShipTwo but designed to have a higher capacity (6 passengers instead of 4) and to be much easier to reuse

They have an ambitious plan to have a maiden flight in 2026, reach cash-breakeven by 2027, and become profitable after bringing online a 3rd Delta class vehicle and second carrier aircraft in 2028

Historically the company has received much of its funding from founders Richard Branson and Virgin Group, but after Branson announced late last year that he wouldn't be providing Virgin Galactic any more funding and that the nearly $1B it has in reserve should be "sufficient funds to do its job on its own", a timely path to profitability will likely be crucial for the company's continued operation

Relevant info and related markets

/Nat/when-will-the-first-virgin-galactic

Eric Berger's article on Virgin Galactic's ambitious plans for the next few years