Real-time whole human brain emulation runs before end of 2038 (not necessarily an 'upload' of a specific human).
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2039
42%
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This must be an accurate simulation of a whole human brain run on a non-neuronal substrate with at least real-time subject experience (1-1 or better emulation-time to clock-time).

  • This would probably be silicon-chip-based substrate, perhaps GPU/CPU or analogue neuromorphic chips.

  • Would need confirmation of high degree of fidelity of neural behavior to human neurons, and high degree of fidelity of neuronal population dynamics.

  • Does not need to emulation physical behavior below neuron level resolution (e.g. protein complexes like ion channels, or movement of ions).

  • Does not need to be a faithful replica of a specific human, just within behavioral distribution of neuronal dynamics observed in the general human population.

  • This requires improvements in measuring neuronal population dynamics in the human population (e.g. by improved brain-computer-interface observations).

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bought Ṁ20 NO

This market heavily overestimates how much we know about brains IMO.

bought Ṁ10 NO

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