
Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025
Plus
24
Ṁ1470Dec 31
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Set criteria:
Move boxes better
Can build houses better
Can hold manufacturing positions
Can load a dishwasher in an unfamiliar kitchen faster
Inspired by tweet thread (note I've put them all as "Neural Nets will" so that they are all framed the same):


Link: https://twitter.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1640568776495353860?s=20
Mar 28, 11:24pm: Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks by the end of 2025 → Neural Nets will be better at typical manual labour tasks than humans by the end of 2025
Get
1,000and
1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Neural Nets will beat any human on computer tasks a typical white-collar worker can do in 10 minutes by the end of 2025.
23% chance
Will we see AI take over at least 100,000 jobs by 2027?
77% chance
Neural Nets will be able to robustly pursue a plan over multiple days better than the best human by the end of 2025
15% chance
Neural Nets will have human-level situational awareness by the end of 2025.
65% chance
Neural Nets will generate more scientific breakthroughs than humans by the end of 2025, including novel theorems
4% chance
Neural nets will out-perform researchers on peer review by end of 2025.
69% chance
Neural Nets will be able to write bestselling novels by the end of 2025
17% chance
Neural Nets will be able to design, code and distribute whole apps by the end of 2025.
30% chance
Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025
38% chance