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Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
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Dec 31
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If one of the parties refuse to call themselves 'EA', how does this resolve?

predicts NO

The AI risk party and the everyone else party?

bought Ṁ1 NO

The correct party and the losers who cannot shut up and multiply.

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12% chance
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
30% chance
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14% chance
Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?
87% chance
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
24% chance
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
15% chance
There will be significant bad blood within EA over disagreements about feminism before 2025
10% chance
How much funding will EA get in 2023?
975
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
77% chance
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