MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
➕
Plus
23
Ṁ1753
Dec 31
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

#Effective Altruism
#Chana's Dashboard
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
3 Comments
Sort by:

If one of the parties refuse to call themselves 'EA', how does this resolve?

predicts NO

The AI risk party and the everyone else party?

bought Ṁ1 NO

The correct party and the losers who cannot shut up and multiply.

Related questions

If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
12% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
30% chance
Will EA be out of business within 3 years?
12% chance
EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.
59% chance
Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?
86% chance
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before end of 2025?
14% chance
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
24% chance
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
15% chance
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
77% chance

Related questions

If no other big events happen and there is a big inter-community listening exercise, will EA split into 2 parties before 2025?
12% chance
Will there be another EA billionaire by the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$1M/yr using a democratized mechanism before 2025?
30% chance
Will there be an EA organisation that donates >$10M/yr using a democratized mechanism before end of 2025?
14% chance
Will EA be out of business within 3 years?
12% chance
Will EA community deploy and actively use a DAO by 2027?
24% chance
EA will have a noticeably less sexually libertine culture in 2025 for the 90th percentile EA, than before 2023, looking back.
59% chance
Will there be an "EA university" or similar institution by 31 December 2027?
15% chance
Will there be any new EA billionaires by 2027?
86% chance
Will there be another EA reputational crisis before 2028?
77% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout