What proportion of the electoral vote will each 2024 Presidential candidate receive? | Manifold

What proportion of the electoral vote will each 2024 Presidential candidate receive?

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18

Ṁ2660

Dec 31

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0.9%

Joe Biden

57%

Donald Trump

0.9%

Robert F Kennedy Jr

40%

Kamala Harris

0.5%

Other

Including faithless electors. Will resolve to the exact proportion of votes each candidate receives.

This is a fixed-payout version of /NcyRocks/what-percentage-of-the-electoral-vo

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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bought Ṁ15 Joe Biden NO

Manifold says Biden has only ~30% chance of being the nominee, and conditional on that, he is likely to lose, so he should be at <15% here.

bought Ṁ10 Donald Trump YES

This resolves to (no. of electoral votes)/538, rather than the popular vote, right?

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