This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format. The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers. Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES. The criteria here are:
The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.
If Wikipedia changes the structure of the page for the 2028 primaries, I will fall back to the criteria "any declared candidate with a wikipedia page".
When the primaries have concluded, all other options will resolve NO.
1,000
1.00