Caplan makes bets with pride,
But his luck may not abide,
For by 2030,
He may be left dirty,
And his losses will not be denied.

He just took this AI bet at 50:50 odds to resolve in 6 years. Definitely more than a 2% chance of losing IMO https://betonit.substack.com/p/ai-bet

@wilsonkime oh I read this market wrong. It's correctly priced. Carry on lol

@wilsonkime https://betonit.substack.com/p/gpt-retakes-my-midterm-and-gets-an

GPT-4 got an A on 1 out of 6 tests (the only one given). Seems likely he could lose this bet now if someone were to give all the exams to GPT-4, inevitable with a few more months of progress, laughably trivial by 2029.

Clarification: What if he loses his climate bet with Yoram Bauman that officially ends at the end of 2029 but that (theoretically) requires waiting till sometime in January of 2030 for official data?

@dreev Ooh, good catch. I think I can allow that one since it's about something that'll happen before 2030. I expect the data from late 2029 won't decide it, though.

@NcyRocks I made a new market specifically about that bet: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-bryan-caplan-win-his-climate-b

He's admitted himself he didn't expect to have a perfect record and that he got lucky so far.

Impressive track record.

Will Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition