Will Helion achieve Q>1 deuterium-tritium fusion before 2025?
Plus
18
Ṁ2837Dec 31
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/open-thread-232: "Speaking of turning money into big positive impacts on the future, Sam Altman writes in to say he enjoyed the recent book review of The Future Of Fusion Energy, and that he predicts Helion (the fusion startup he’s a leading investor in) has a 85% chance of Q > 1 D-T fusion by 2024, and a 65% chance of Q > 1 D-He3 fusion by 2026."
They didn't manage it in 2024, but maybe Altman meant by the end of 2024?
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will Helion achieve breakeven deuterium-helium-3 fusion before 2026?
18% chance
Will Helion deploy a commercial fusion reactor before 2040?
53% chance
Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
26% chance
Will Helion demonstrate breakeven in a fusion reactor before the end of 2025?
17% chance
Will Helion's Polaris fusion reactor produce net electricity by Jan 1st, 2025?
2% chance
Will anyone ever achieve Q>5 in a D-He3 reactor smaller than 1km^3?
56% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?
20% chance
Will a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
43% chance
Will nuclear fusion become a viable energy source before 2050?
65% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?
32% chance