Will the Georgia v Trump case be removed to federal court for any defendant?

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Jul 1

chance

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Context: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/15/trump-georgia-case-removal-federal-court-00111240

An early test for Georgia prosecutors: Trump’s likely bid to take the case to federal court

He's virtually certain to try to transfer the case in hopes of a friendlier jury pool and the chance to draw one of his own judges.

Resolves YES iff the Georgia case against any of the defendants is removed to federal court.

Definition:

federal law allows a prosecution or suit to be "removed" (i.e. transfered) from state to federal court if the case stems from a federal officer’s governmental duties.
This question resolves based on the venue of any defendant's prosecution. If any defendant is able to remove (not just Trump) that counts.
(Standard rule, just to be clear:) The close date does not matter for the resolution criteria of this market. It will be changed as needed.

(Derived from https://manifold.markets/jack/will-the-georgia-v-trump-case-be-re?r=TmlhbGxXZWF2ZXI)

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predicts NO

The "fake electors" are also DENIED: https://twitter.com/hugolowell/status/1707870743608823889

predicts NO

Clark denied https://t.co/RqWj6QazCd

https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/18/politics/jeffrey-clark-georgia-election-hearing/index.html

Clark had a rough hearing

https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1702075837825069517

Meadows gets these justices for his appeal in the 11th circuit:

-Adalberto Jordan (Obama)
-Robin Rosenbaum (Obama)
-Charles Wilson (Clinton)

predicts NO

@AdamTreat What's more they specifically asked for briefing on whether the removal statue Meadow's is trying for is valid for former federal officers. This isn't something that either Meadows nor Georgia has brought up before. Georgia just replied and said, "Why YES, that is RIGHT, he can't get removal because he is former and not current federal officer"

Arb opp https://manifold.markets/AdamTreat/will-any-of-the-19-defendants-in-fu?r=QWRhbVRyZWF0

Will any of the 19 defendants in Fulton County Trump case be removed to federal court?

47% chance. https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/4162801-can-trumps-co-defendants-make-a-federal-case-out-of-the-georgia-indictment/ Several of Trump's co-defendents are already petitioning a federal court to remove the case. It is widely speculated that Trump himself will try. This question resolves YES iff any of them succeed and NO iff no defendent is successful in having the case removed to federal court. To be very clear, if someone starts cooperating, the case drops, they die, etc this will resolve NO. The only way it will resolve YES is if someone successfully convinces a federal judge to remove the case and for that removal to be upheld on all reviews.

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