Will at least five of the people on Kash Patel's "enemies list" be incarcerated on December 31, 2026?
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The list consists of 60 people from an appendix in his book, as reported here: https://rollcall.com/2024/12/09/trumps-pick-to-lead-fbi-identified-government-gangsters/

This question will resolve YES if and only if at least five of those 60 people are incarcerated for any reason as of December 31, 2026 (a little more than two years from the inception of the question).

  • Update 2024-14-12 (PST): - Temporary jailing counts towards the resolution criteria - individuals only need to be physically incarcerated on December 31, 2026, regardless of conviction status (AI summary of creator comment)

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@traders A related marke

t can be found here:

Good question. Added it to the dashboard US Democracy:

https://manifold.markets/news/us-democracy

Consider adding US Democracy as a topic 🙂

@Siebe thanks, done

Does temporary jailing count, or do they need to be convicted?

@Siebe Temporary jailing counts. This is a point-in-time criterion: are they behind bars on the date specified.

@NicholasWeininger So if they're in jail before then and then released (or out on bail?)