Will Humans become extinct in 2300?
Mini
10
Ṁ5182300
52%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
If you randomly, blindly grab ball #10 from a numbered basket. What's the chance the basket has 100.000 balls instead of just 20?
Now note how you're human #117 billion, is humanity really going to be more than 300 billion large, are you really, by pure coincidence that early in the story?
Related questions
Related questions
Will Humans go extinct by 2200?
59% chance
Will Humans become extinct in 2400?
66% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2300?
39% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2400?
41% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2200?
33% chance
Will humanity survive until 2100?
83% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2600?
45% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2700?
50% chance
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
3% chance
Will humans be an endangered species by 2500?
20% chance