This is a market in a series on markets for possible quantified self experiments I might run.
Context here, in short: I will put up >10 of these markets, run the "best" one (my own judgment, but probably just the one with the highest expected Cohen's d), and a random one (resolving them to the outcome), and will resolve all the others as N/A. In all experiments, I will be using the statistical method detailed here, code for it here.
50 samples taken after waking up, 25 intervention (150mg Bupropion), and 25 placebo (sugar pills). Duration of the trial would be 2½ months again.
However: I might not be able to run this market even if it looks good to run in expectation, because it turns out to be more difficult to get hold of Bupropion than I expected, or I might have to use an equivalent but differently named substance (Wellbutrin, Zyban), potentially with a slightly different dose. I put 25% on not being able to run this experiment at all, and 65% on not being able to run it exactly as described.
In general, I measure happiness by randomly experience sampling using MoodPatterns (more info here).
Past happiness data can be found here.
1,000
1.00This meta-analysis gives a Hedge's g of -2.02 on depression scores, and this site reports that for sample sizes >20, it's roughly the same as Cohen's d.