How much FLOP will be used to train the best language model with freely available weights on July 1, 2025? | Manifold

How much FLOP will be used to train the best language model with freely available weights on July 1, 2025?

Mini

5

Ṁ1237

Jul 2

1D

1W

1M

ALL

2%

<1e24

2%

[1e24, 3e24)

12%

[3e24, 1e25)

15%

[1e25, 3e25)

33%

[3e25, 1e26)

25%

[3e26, 1e27)

4%

[1e27, 3e27)

1.9%

[3e27, 1e28)

1.6%

[1e28, 3e28)

1.2%

[3e28, 1e29)

1.2%

>=1e29

Get

1,000

and

1.00

Sort by:

There seems to be a mistake, there is no option if someone believes it will be 2e26.

How would the best language model be determined?

Related questions

Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?

-26% 1d24% chance

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs

+10% 1d97% chance

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs

+8% 1d97% chance

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States?

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Related questions

Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2030 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^26 FLOPs

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States?

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules